September Global Macro Monthly - Summer passes, winter’s coming
Key points
- An energy crunch appears to be materialising with Germany and CEE countries most affected.
- We forecast recession in the Eurozone, with a sharp contraction in coming quarters. The UK also looks set to experience recession, despite a fiscal package that has undermined confidence in UK markets.
- Chinese activity struggles on housing restructuring and COVID. We lower our 2022 growth outlook to 3%.
- US activity has been mixed, with falling gasoline providing short-term relief. Still there is overwhelming expectation of stagnation or outright contraction.
- The Fed continues to tighten policy aggressively. While most other central banks follow, the dollar continues to rise, threatening broader instability.
- Financial conditions have tightened. The rate outlook will ease only once tighter conditions visibly slow growth.
Related Documents
Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions.
Visit the Investment InstituteDisclaimer